Housing and Mortgage Rates: What is ahead for the remainder of 2024?
With the latest Fed meeting and Presidential Election behind us, the markets and borrowing costs will now take direction from economic data, inflation, and the state of the labor market. As we move closer to the end of 2024, here's what we should be watching.
The past three years have been tough for the housing market as it saw borrowing costs almost triple and have now backed off from the multi-year highs seen in late 2023. Freddie Mac's Sam Khater recently said, "Although uncertainty will remain, it does appear mortgage rates are cresting, and we do not expect them to reach the highs that we saw earlier this year." That sounds like a valid statement as 2024 ends.
But the real elephants in the room are high home prices and low inventories. It seems like every report on housing prices has a frothy plus percentage year over year as well as month over month. However, a recent report from Realtor.com showed that the number of homes for sale is now the highest since 2019, including in pandemic ‘boomtowns.'
The total number of homes for sale in October was 29.2% higher than the year before, marking the 12th consecutive month of growth. That could start to ease the high home prices.
The housing market is not out of the woods yet. After falling from those multi-year highs, mortgage rates are on the rise. At the end of September, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to nearly 6%, but the latest reading shows 6.75%. A homebuyer on a $3,000 monthly budget has lost $33,250 in purchasing power over the last six weeks, with the daily average 30-year fixed mortgage rate rising to 7% on October 28, reports Redfin.
So, what lies ahead for housing and rates? As far as borrowing costs are concerned, rates will most likely remain near current levels given still sticky inflation, positive economic data, along with the enormous debt offerings from the Treasury.
Bottom line: Despite some headwinds in the housing market, there will always be demand for housing as renters move up, people relocate, and new families are formed every day.
Source: Mortgage Market Guide